APOLCALYPSE NOT NOW

A look at some of the apocalyptic headlines in yesterday’s papers would suggest that now Vaclav Klaus has signed the Lisbon Treaty, this is the end of the UK. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Although David Cameron’s attempt to cobble together a “sovereignty bill” as an alternative to his “cast iron guarantee” to hold a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty looks rather vague and muddled, the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU is by no means settled.

Cameron faces a delicate balancing act over the coming months. Many in his own party including former shadow Home Secretary David Davis want some sort of referendum. Both inside and outside the Conservative party, he is being accused of a climbdown or even treachery. Tory MEPs Roger Helmer and Dan Hannan have made their dissatisfaction known by resigning from the Tory Front Bench. However, with the Tories enjoying a comfortable but not unassailable lead in the opinion polls, even the most ardent withdrawalist Tories will not want to rock the boat and risk snatching defeat from the jaws of victory by precipitating a vicious bout of in-fighting.

On the other hand, if Cameron does not take a tough line on Europe, he leaves the door open for the Tory vote to haemorrhage to smaller withdrawalist parties. The scale of this vote loss may be critical if the Tory lead starts to drop. He can count on a good deal of tactical voting as those many for whom another five years of New Labour is too terrible to contemplate recognise that the Tory party offers the only alternative government. Nonetheless, it will surely not have escaped his notice that many who are likely to vote Tory will be doing so on the basis on his being less awful that Gordon Brown, rather than out of any enthusiasm for his “modernising” agenda.  They may only "lend" the Tories their vote this once to see off New Labour.

One thing is clear – a Prime Minister Cameron will not be able to duck the issue of Europe for long. It may not even require any new European legislation surrendering yet more powers to produce a flashpoint – once the Lisbon Treaty with its increased use of Qualified Majority Voting starts to kick in and tie our hands still further, that could be sufficient. Tory disunity over Europe has been festering in the background for many years, but it must eventually come to the surface, and all the signs are that it will be sooner rather than later.

As the media has started to recall the dramatic events of twenty years ago when the “Iron Curtain” came down, it has not escaped our minds in the Withdrawalist movement just what “people power” was able to achieve then against a far more unpleasant regime. Nor has it escaped our minds that even those who support Britain’s EU membership are saying that any talk by the Tories of referenda or repatriating sovereignty is going to lead inevitably to calls for an “in” or “out” referendum. With Lisbon now signed by all 27 member states, there is really no question of reform or repatriation. Cameron may try this route, but if the other member states will not agree, as they probably will not, he has no alternative once he comes back from Brussels with a rebuff.

It has always been the belief of UK First that only after 2010 is there any hope of the British Political landscape changing. We fully sympathise with the desire of the bulk of the electorate to see the back of Gordon Brown and New Labour. However, we will be seeking to work, even in 2010, to ensure that the European Union is not pushed to one side in he General Election campaign, and after that we will be ready to join forces with all who love our country for one big push for an “in” or “out “ referendum that Cameron must either embrace or else be destroyed by. We believe that Britain’s destiny is to be a free country again. Cameron has the chance of being remembered for doing something good, even great, by leading us out of the EU. How strange he seems so reluctant to grasp his moment, especially when the alternative looks like leading a party that could well rip itself to shreds..